Quiet Before the Storm

Stand for Israel  |  April 16, 2024

Writing at The Jerusalem Post, Seth J. Frantzman asks an important question—will the Israel-Iran conflict escalate? He writes about the significance of this new phase of war after Iran’s direct attack just six months since the start of war:

Could the risk of escalation also lead to a potential agreement? Hamas has rejected the latest Israeli ceasefire deal, and Hezbollah does not seem ready to withdraw from the border. Hamas appears to feel empowered, along with Iran’s other proxies. Iran’s entrenchment in Syria is also not likely to change. In fact, Iran may increase the entrenchment.

Entering a new era of the conflict

It remains to be seen what kind of pressure could be exerted on Hamas, Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies to change their behavior. The region has reached a new phase of the conflict that began on October 7. The April 13-14 Iranian attacks were a curtain raiser, just after the six month anniversary of October 7, is symbolic.