As we note in today’s Daily Dispatch, Iranian news reports that Tehran will begin using its fastest centrifuges as soon as the ill-conceived nuclear deal with the West takes effect. But Iran’s nuclear program is only a means to an end, writes the always insightful Michael J. Totten. The Islamic Republic’s ultimate goal is to become the predominant power in the Middle East:
The chattering class has spent the last couple of days pontificating on and bickering about the so-called nuclear “deal” with Iran, but largely missing from the conversation is a recognition of the Iranian government’s ultimate goal—to become the regional hegemon. Its nuclear weapons program is simply a means to that end…
…but one thing at least should be clear: the Iranian government is and will continue to be a pernicious force in the region regardless of any agreement. Even with a good deal from our point of view, replacing a rapid expansion of Iran’s nuclear weapons program with sanctions relief and economic growth will at best be a wash.
Many in Washington seem unbothered by Iran’s ultimate ambitions and are only concerned with Iranian nukes. In an interview on NPR in December, President Barack Obama said a deal could break Iran’s isolation and enable the country to become, as he put it, “a successful regional power.”
Iran, though, is already a successful regional power…
Zoom out and look at the rest of the region. One Middle Eastern state after another has disintegrated into schismatic abstractions controlled by rival armed groups. Iraq, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Yemen are all, as scholar and analyst Jonathan Spyer put it, “living in the time of the militias,” many of which moonlight as international terrorist organizations.
Iran backs armed factions in four out of five of those countries—Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, undisciplined Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The only reason it has no footprint in Libya is because Libya has no natural Shia constituency for Iran to throw its weight and power behind.
Tehran’s most effective project so far is Hezbollah, which has dominated Lebanon for decades and is expanding into its range of operations deep into Syria. Its Iraqi proxies just burned and looted Saddam Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit, and its Houthi clients in Yemen are well on their way to conquering the city of Aden, one of the country’s largest cities, after seizing control of the capital Sanaa a couple of months ago.