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Calm Along Israel's Northern Border

Northern Border ASHERNET

Right now the soldiers protecting Israel's northern border haven't seen many threats, and the area seems to be calming down. While soldiers still prepare to defend the border in case the situation changes, currently they maintain that the area is under control:

As Nahal Brigade troops prepare to leave after 18 months' patrolling Israel's borders with Lebanon and Syria, commander Barak Rubin explains why the border is so complicated: "Not every armed man you see in front of you is an enemy. But we're in control."

Quiet is a relative term. That is what we've learned all these years when it comes to Israel's borders. This week, as I toured the Lebanese and Syrian borders in the north with Nahal Brigade combat soldiers, the general sense was one of calm. But the unit's commanders, who will soon complete 18 months of operational duty in the region, inform me that the quiet atmosphere is misleading. One miscalculated move or one act of aggression by Hezbollah, and this picturesque calm will ignite into war.

According to intelligence assessments, the likelihood that Hezbollah will launch a war against Israel in 2016 is very low, because the organization is currently mired in the Syrian conflict. But, Military Intelligence knows full well that one wrong move could easily devolve into a full on clash, even worse than the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

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